* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 10/09/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 56 62 67 70 73 73 72 V (KT) LAND 25 28 27 27 27 27 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 24 25 26 26 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 4 5 10 10 4 8 11 20 19 14 16 18 SHEAR DIR 313 282 255 232 249 302 223 210 211 203 152 139 110 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 155 155 155 155 154 153 153 156 158 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 143 143 142 142 142 141 140 141 145 147 150 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 11 10 9 10 9 10 8 9 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 80 79 73 72 73 71 70 68 68 66 69 69 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 11 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 103 97 90 87 81 85 94 91 90 97 92 104 200 MB DIV 41 35 31 34 22 22 39 60 91 102 86 105 85 LAND (KM) 110 45 -15 -38 -104 -69 0 -16 -23 -63 -126 -98 -30 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.1 17.7 17.1 16.7 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 86.6 87.2 87.8 88.5 89.1 90.3 91.6 92.7 93.7 94.8 95.7 96.8 98.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 109 108 98 9999 9999 9999 52 57 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 9. 6. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 27. 34. 40. 44. 46. 47. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 31. 37. 42. 45. 48. 48. 47. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 10/09/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 10/09/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY