* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* INVEST AL942007 10/10/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 31 38 42 44 46 49 53 55
V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 34 41 45 47 49 52 37 30
V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 25 26 26 32 35 36 36 33 33 28 27
SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 6 6 12 15 19 31 25 18 19 18 19
SHEAR DIR 263 278 275 266 234 243 221 228 219 222 190 179 183
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 150 150 151 150 152 151 151 152 154 156
ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 136 136 135 135 133 134 135 137 138 141 142
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -51.4
TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 11 11 8 10 7 9 6 9 6 10
700-500 MB RH 74 74 70 66 67 64 65 59 56 54 54 56 59
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 99 94 94 99 93 81 86 64 52 39 73 91 114
200 MB DIV 37 44 29 16 34 52 63 30 45 23 59 83 104
LAND (KM) -64 -130 -133 -70 -6 103 144 131 114 73 25 -80 -167
LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.9 19.7 19.4 19.2 19.2 19.4 20.1
LONG(DEG W) 88.1 88.7 89.3 89.9 90.5 91.6 92.4 93.0 93.6 94.6 95.8 97.1 98.5
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 4 5 6 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 25 53 56 53 50 45 56 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 4. 0. -3. -4. -5. -7.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 22. 24. 26. 29. 33. 35.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 22. 24. 26. 29. 33. 35.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 10/10/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 39% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 10/10/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY