* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 10/11/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 27 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 27 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 22 27 35 50 43 46 51 46 47 43 34 SHEAR DIR 233 238 281 322 346 352 339 338 339 332 327 311 272 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.5 23.7 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 123 120 118 116 113 106 103 102 103 99 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 108 104 100 97 96 95 90 88 88 91 89 85 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 -54.4 -53.7 -54.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -55.3 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 54 53 57 56 51 52 60 64 62 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -90 -86 -71 -77 -84 -104 -61 -61 -54 -47 -45 -24 -14 200 MB DIV 0 -16 -19 -26 -63 -16 2 13 -8 48 -20 66 15 LAND (KM) 1829 1859 1846 1833 1821 1776 1689 1600 1563 1523 1485 1568 1791 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.9 31.7 32.7 33.4 34.3 35.8 37.4 39.2 LONG(DEG W) 52.8 51.7 50.6 50.3 49.9 50.0 49.9 48.7 47.1 45.4 42.8 38.8 33.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 6 3 2 3 5 7 8 11 15 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 8 7 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 12 CX,CY: 11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 6. -1. -7. -12. -15. -17. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -9. -15. -20. -25. -29. -32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -15. -21. -26. -30. -35. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 10/11/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 10/11/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY