* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 10/11/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 33 33 30 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 33 33 30 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 33 32 29 26 23 21 18 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 22 25 26 28 42 40 36 43 50 52 32 26 SHEAR DIR 233 274 319 342 356 358 346 340 326 327 332 310 255 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.9 23.9 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 121 118 118 118 116 112 108 107 107 102 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 104 101 97 97 97 97 94 92 92 96 93 86 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.1 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.7 -55.1 -56.0 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 55 53 54 52 51 53 56 58 62 65 62 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -82 -74 -76 -82 -81 -96 -54 -51 -42 -32 5 10 -13 200 MB DIV -9 -20 -28 -58 -49 -7 35 11 27 -13 38 2 54 LAND (KM) 1864 1866 1869 1865 1861 1832 1767 1707 1681 1642 1593 1623 1789 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.4 31.0 31.7 32.2 32.9 34.4 36.8 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 51.0 50.3 49.6 49.5 49.4 49.9 49.8 48.8 47.5 46.2 43.4 38.7 33.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 3 1 1 2 4 6 6 10 18 24 26 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 7 6 6 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 3. -1. -6. -12. -15. -17. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -8. -12. -18. -24. -28. -30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -9. -13. -20. -26. -30. -33. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 10/11/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 10/11/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY