* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* FIFTEEN AL152007 10/12/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 29 27 24 20 18 17 17 17 DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 22 19 22 25 44 51 46 26 17 28 56 58 N/A
SHEAR DIR 270 312 340 355 3 11 6 2 320 292 262 242 N/A
SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.1 25.4 24.7 24.4 24.2 23.6 N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 121 119 119 120 113 107 102 100 99 95 N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 108 106 101 98 97 101 96 90 87 85 85 82 N/A
200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -55.1 -55.1 -56.6 N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 N/A
700-500 MB RH 56 58 56 55 53 48 54 49 44 51 54 51 N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -76 -82 -77 -77 -80 -124 -102 -70 -79 -32 -20 23 N/A
200 MB DIV -30 -27 -58 -86 -63 -36 -22 -12 18 6 91 25 N/A
LAND (KM) 1876 1885 1897 1915 1934 1881 1760 1657 1564 1475 1420 1383 N/A
LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 30.3 31.6 32.7 33.9 35.2 36.5 37.9 N/A
LONG(DEG W) 49.9 49.0 48.0 47.9 47.8 47.7 46.9 46.4 45.4 44.3 42.8 41.2 N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 5 2 1 5 7 6 8 8 9 9 N/A
HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 6 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.5 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -18.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -6. -5. -5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -17. -19. -21. -25. -28. -33.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -18. -20. -22. -26. -30. -36.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL152007 FIFTEEN 10/12/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : -52.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
Scaled RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152007 FIFTEEN 10/12/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY