* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FIFTEEN AL152007 10/12/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 25 21 18 16 15 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 21 26 33 50 55 49 37 24 25 35 57 59 N/A SHEAR DIR 322 345 358 1 8 3 16 336 320 279 267 251 N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.6 25.0 24.3 24.0 24.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 119 119 118 116 113 107 103 98 97 97 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 101 98 98 97 96 94 90 87 84 83 83 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -55.4 -56.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 48 48 49 50 51 49 50 59 46 44 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -93 -96 -88 -90 -109 -114 -85 -87 -60 -33 -15 50 N/A 200 MB DIV -42 -66 -67 -53 -35 -10 -16 -4 -2 28 -22 7 N/A LAND (KM) 1869 1875 1882 1873 1865 1824 1745 1660 1583 1486 1396 1317 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.7 31.4 32.2 33.0 34.0 35.1 36.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.6 49.2 48.8 48.7 48.5 48.4 48.5 48.4 48.0 47.6 46.7 45.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 0. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -21. -24. -27. -32. -35. -40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -22. -25. -29. -34. -37. -43. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL152007 FIFTEEN 10/12/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -52.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152007 FIFTEEN 10/12/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY