* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FIFTEEN AL152007 10/12/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 27 31 47 52 47 44 31 36 49 58 59 53 N/A SHEAR DIR 351 3 359 8 4 1 332 301 293 256 258 243 N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.1 24.8 24.1 24.0 24.1 23.5 22.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 118 116 117 113 103 98 97 98 95 89 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 99 97 95 97 96 88 84 83 84 82 78 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -56.7 -56.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 2 2 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 46 49 51 48 53 55 55 58 55 33 39 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -83 -79 -77 -99 -113 -106 -51 -37 3 29 10 -43 N/A 200 MB DIV -73 -61 -51 -50 -39 -16 4 41 12 44 -9 17 N/A LAND (KM) 1875 1863 1851 1840 1829 1733 1557 1422 1300 1226 1192 1214 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.6 31.5 33.2 34.6 36.1 37.4 38.8 40.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.2 49.0 48.7 48.7 48.7 48.6 48.2 47.6 46.5 45.1 43.2 41.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 3 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. -2. -8. -13. -16. -19. -25. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -28. -29. -34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -24. -27. -29. -30. -37. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL152007 FIFTEEN 10/12/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -54.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152007 FIFTEEN 10/12/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY