* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FIFTEEN AL152007 10/12/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 37 48 45 42 42 31 27 30 42 70 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 354 356 360 354 354 351 318 301 254 249 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.1 24.4 23.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 116 116 115 112 108 103 99 95 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 94 95 95 95 93 90 87 84 81 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -54.4 -54.2 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 54 54 56 62 59 57 60 35 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -87 -89 -108 -115 -98 -66 -34 -39 -7 -13 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -52 -31 -33 6 36 14 36 21 32 -13 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1827 1822 1817 1794 1770 1715 1638 1554 1455 1355 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.5 32.2 33.0 34.0 35.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.5 49.5 49.4 49.5 49.6 49.6 49.6 49.4 48.9 48.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. 5. -1. -5. -13. -15. -18. -24. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -22. -25. -27. -30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -23. -25. -28. -34. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL152007 FIFTEEN 10/12/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152007 FIFTEEN 10/12/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY