* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902007 10/13/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 45 51 55 59 62 64 63 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 45 51 55 59 62 64 63 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 34 37 39 40 41 40 SHEAR (KTS) 9 15 17 15 10 8 8 10 13 16 20 26 31 SHEAR DIR 106 103 116 126 125 107 97 88 71 87 76 81 76 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 155 155 153 151 148 146 145 146 145 145 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 63 62 60 59 56 54 51 54 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 59 53 55 57 46 46 46 49 56 85 105 117 130 200 MB DIV 56 60 67 71 75 52 29 32 36 65 75 71 41 LAND (KM) 592 567 546 522 507 538 631 740 828 900 1002 1086 1126 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.3 16.1 15.8 15.5 14.9 14.4 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 106.8 107.2 107.7 108.1 108.9 110.0 111.1 112.4 113.5 114.4 115.1 115.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 30. 34. 38. 39. 40. 38. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 11. 20. 26. 30. 34. 37. 39. 38. 36. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP902007 INVEST 10/13/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902007 INVEST 10/13/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED