* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902007 10/13/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 43 50 53 56 58 59 58 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 43 50 53 56 58 59 58 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 35 36 37 36 35 SHEAR (KTS) 11 17 15 12 10 10 12 12 22 21 29 31 33 SHEAR DIR 99 106 122 119 103 115 84 88 76 89 75 79 81 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 154 153 151 150 147 146 147 146 145 143 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 64 60 59 57 54 51 54 53 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 51 53 53 44 34 52 37 59 72 107 124 146 138 200 MB DIV 58 72 71 73 73 60 45 32 44 76 59 44 32 LAND (KM) 617 598 568 561 560 608 698 824 901 1008 1120 1211 1247 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.7 15.9 15.8 15.6 15.3 14.7 14.1 13.6 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.4 107.8 108.2 108.6 109.4 110.4 111.7 113.0 114.1 115.2 116.0 116.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 5 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 20. 27. 32. 34. 35. 34. 33. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. 33. 31. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP902007 INVEST 10/13/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902007 INVEST 10/13/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED