* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902007 10/14/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 45 52 54 56 57 57 55 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 45 52 54 56 57 57 55 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 34 35 35 35 33 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 12 10 9 12 14 18 22 21 28 32 35 SHEAR DIR 117 119 123 105 110 82 91 70 82 79 82 83 82 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 152 152 150 148 146 146 146 145 144 142 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.9 -52.2 -52.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 64 61 62 55 56 53 55 56 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 59 58 46 35 45 46 48 64 99 124 148 151 138 200 MB DIV 71 84 99 102 97 54 35 39 56 60 81 41 43 LAND (KM) 642 613 589 588 590 648 745 859 922 1023 1091 1120 1116 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.1 14.5 14.2 14.1 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.9 108.3 108.7 109.0 109.8 110.8 112.0 113.0 114.0 114.8 115.2 115.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 8. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 20. 27. 30. 33. 32. 32. 29. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 13. 20. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 30. 27. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP902007 INVEST 10/14/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902007 INVEST 10/14/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED