* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902007 10/14/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 47 52 54 56 59 56 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 47 52 54 56 59 56 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 33 34 35 35 34 SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 13 10 10 14 13 20 16 24 25 32 24 SHEAR DIR 103 105 105 113 103 90 82 70 87 73 77 78 88 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 151 151 150 148 147 146 145 143 145 145 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 64 62 62 60 61 55 57 58 57 57 57 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 11 12 13 13 15 15 16 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 58 46 32 40 48 32 43 66 108 132 155 134 127 200 MB DIV 78 86 86 88 60 41 33 43 64 87 102 64 64 LAND (KM) 636 616 601 606 613 669 765 865 948 1013 1041 1002 939 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.2 15.1 14.7 14.3 14.1 14.4 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.3 108.6 108.9 109.1 109.8 110.7 111.8 112.5 113.2 113.4 113.2 112.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 4 2 0 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 30. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 23. 29. 31. 32. 34. 31. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 22. 27. 29. 31. 34. 31. 29. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP902007 INVEST 10/14/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902007 INVEST 10/14/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY