* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL982007 10/14/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 23 27 33 42 48 53 57 60 59
V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 23 24 29 39 30 32 37 40 39
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 25 27 26 30 35 40 45
SHEAR (KTS) 27 24 15 12 15 17 13 4 9 10 16 15 19
SHEAR DIR 42 41 43 26 1 11 8 28 327 307 316 301 302
SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 159 161 163 165 161 162 160 154 152 153 153
ADJ. POT. INT. 156 157 161 162 163 164 156 157 153 143 139 138 135
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 12 9 12 8 12 10 14 11
700-500 MB RH 67 64 64 69 69 68 68 68 69 64 61 54 49
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -28 0 13 24 18 27 3 2 10 6 17 12 12
200 MB DIV 16 12 7 1 -15 -2 4 8 6 29 6 8 -19
LAND (KM) 309 416 453 317 183 -19 33 21 -162 30 155 278 268
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.2 16.1 17.1 18.0 19.1 20.0 20.9 21.6
LONG(DEG W) 76.5 77.8 79.0 80.3 81.5 83.9 86.0 88.0 89.8 91.5 92.6 93.7 94.6
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 89 93 66 54 88 74 88 94 9999 55 55 50 58
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.3 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 11. 19. 26. 32. 37. 41. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 21. 26. 32. 37. 40. 41.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 13. 22. 28. 33. 37. 40. 39.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 10/14/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 10/14/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY