* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 10/14/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 27 34 40 46 48 48 45 43 38 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 25 31 37 43 45 46 43 38 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 29 32 35 37 38 37 34 28 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 9 10 11 9 15 21 23 32 38 41 34 SHEAR DIR 146 170 198 273 301 285 296 260 279 272 277 270 276 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 154 153 151 150 150 152 154 152 147 139 132 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 143 143 141 140 137 137 137 134 130 124 117 105 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 12 12 11 10 12 9 11 8 11 10 11 5 700-500 MB RH 61 55 53 54 55 53 55 51 50 48 44 38 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 26 20 5 10 -14 -3 -30 -20 -64 -77 -46 200 MB DIV -1 -9 -8 -9 -2 22 17 22 9 10 7 24 8 LAND (KM) 149 69 -9 -105 -124 75 242 400 375 298 95 8 -214 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.5 20.0 21.2 22.4 23.6 24.9 26.7 28.5 30.2 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 86.2 86.9 87.6 88.5 89.3 91.0 92.1 93.0 93.6 93.5 91.5 89.4 86.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 8 10 13 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 105 107 86 9999 9999 50 65 58 55 47 25 18 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 3. 0. -4. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 11. 18. 24. 27. 28. 27. 25. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 7. 14. 20. 26. 28. 28. 25. 23. 18. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 10/14/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 10/14/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY