* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902007 10/14/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 50 54 55 57 58 54 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 50 54 55 57 58 54 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 32 33 34 34 34 33 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 10 9 12 15 16 17 19 19 25 26 22 SHEAR DIR 104 105 113 111 94 98 70 90 75 77 77 85 93 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 151 150 150 148 147 145 144 144 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.8 -52.1 -52.9 -52.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 61 61 60 57 54 55 51 53 52 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 16 17 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 46 32 40 49 37 39 46 85 111 139 139 125 120 200 MB DIV 87 86 88 59 49 31 45 50 65 98 65 66 32 LAND (KM) 614 601 591 605 621 684 776 843 913 939 940 884 826 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.4 15.3 15.3 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.5 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.4 108.6 108.8 109.1 109.3 109.9 110.9 111.7 112.4 112.9 113.2 113.1 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 2 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 24. 29. 31. 32. 33. 28. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 25. 29. 30. 32. 33. 29. 28. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP902007 INVEST 10/14/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902007 INVEST 10/14/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED