* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982007 10/14/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 20 20 24 29 37 41 48 54 61 64 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 20 20 23 25 29 28 27 32 39 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 23 25 26 27 27 31 38 32 SHEAR (KTS) 29 25 22 22 22 19 18 9 16 11 9 5 5 SHEAR DIR 37 43 35 24 25 17 33 17 360 354 15 339 241 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 162 163 165 162 160 166 162 156 154 152 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 163 165 166 166 160 157 161 155 146 143 141 145 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 11 10 12 9 10 10 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 64 64 70 70 66 71 67 72 71 70 64 62 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 13 30 30 51 47 33 47 56 72 91 102 115 200 MB DIV -3 0 3 -9 9 1 3 7 18 44 52 36 40 LAND (KM) 373 432 319 171 24 -108 -31 -23 -167 -62 40 30 -113 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.9 15.5 16.2 17.1 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 77.5 78.9 80.3 81.7 83.0 85.2 87.2 89.1 91.1 92.6 94.1 95.6 97.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 10 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 90 67 49 76 24 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 49 53 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 11. 19. 26. 32. 37. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 9. 16. 21. 27. 35. 43. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. 0. 0. 4. 9. 17. 21. 28. 34. 41. 44. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 10/14/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 10/14/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY