* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL992007 10/14/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 35 41 46 47 46 45 43 39
V (KT) LAND 20 20 23 24 28 35 41 46 47 47 46 32 28
V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 22 24 25 31 34 37 38 39 37 29 27
SHEAR (KTS) 4 4 5 10 9 11 15 21 25 32 36 42 45
SHEAR DIR 113 199 296 316 313 308 295 289 294 276 274 274 256
SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.6 27.9 26.2 23.8
POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 152 150 153 154 154 151 146 137 119 101
ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 144 143 139 139 138 137 134 130 124 109 92
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6
TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 11 10 12 11 12 10 11 9 12 9 7
700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 52 52 54 51 50 48 41 38 44 58
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 4 3 5 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 15 27 22 4 12 1 -8 -18 -20 -37 -56 -43 35
200 MB DIV -11 -8 -8 -8 0 15 17 4 23 4 31 20 69
LAND (KM) 61 -28 -118 -102 6 178 336 385 256 215 40 -184 -534
LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.6 22.7 23.8 25.3 27.3 29.3 32.0 35.3
LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.8 88.6 89.6 90.5 91.9 93.0 94.0 94.7 94.0 92.6 89.6 86.0
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 9 9 7 8 8 11 15 20 22
HEAT CONTENT 109 9999 9999 9999 40 53 57 64 30 46 22 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 29. 32. 35. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 3. 0. -3. -7.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 20. 26. 28. 28. 27. 25. 22.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 21. 26. 27. 26. 25. 23. 19.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 10/14/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 10/14/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY