* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902007 10/14/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 34 38 44 46 48 49 47 46 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 34 38 44 46 48 49 47 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 28 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 14 12 15 12 21 17 25 21 22 19 20 SHEAR DIR 88 94 104 92 92 83 70 87 68 75 74 86 89 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 151 151 151 149 147 145 144 144 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 62 62 58 59 55 54 49 50 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 14 16 16 16 16 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 33 39 48 39 38 50 68 108 119 138 126 123 125 200 MB DIV 89 94 59 47 56 42 51 76 79 64 27 34 7 LAND (KM) 625 603 581 586 593 644 696 759 819 853 888 926 955 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.6 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.3 108.3 108.5 108.6 109.3 110.2 111.1 112.1 113.1 114.1 114.8 115.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 23. 26. 26. 26. 23. 21. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -3. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 21. 23. 24. 22. 21. 21. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP902007 INVEST 10/14/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902007 INVEST 10/14/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY