* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIFTEEN EP152007 10/15/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 50 52 51 48 48 47 43 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 50 52 51 48 48 47 43 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 35 36 37 38 39 38 37 35 34 32 SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 13 14 13 17 18 25 25 27 27 27 23 SHEAR DIR 90 98 93 92 96 71 84 74 75 74 83 86 96 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 150 149 147 145 145 144 143 143 142 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.6 -51.7 -52.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 59 58 58 52 51 49 48 46 48 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 15 17 18 18 16 16 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 44 51 41 40 48 59 94 121 125 132 131 131 126 200 MB DIV 103 61 49 55 47 46 53 84 80 54 50 6 62 LAND (KM) 620 617 615 633 652 716 784 852 891 901 892 880 824 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.7 108.8 109.1 109.4 110.2 111.1 111.8 112.4 113.0 113.3 113.5 113.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 1 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 6. 7. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 25. 27. 26. 20. 19. 18. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 22. 21. 18. 18. 17. 13. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 FIFTEEN 10/15/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 FIFTEEN 10/15/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY