* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL982007 10/15/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 30 35 41 46 55 62 65
V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 19 22 25 32 27 27 31 35 30 28
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 22 25 29 26 27 30 35 29 27
SHEAR (KTS) 24 22 22 21 23 24 14 18 14 12 4 5 10
SHEAR DIR 28 17 16 7 6 32 26 9 357 1 298 230 182
SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 159 163 163 165 163 160 164 162 158 154 153 157 162
ADJ. POT. INT. 160 165 163 164 161 157 159 154 148 143 142 148 156
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 12 11 12 10 11 10 13 12 12 11
700-500 MB RH 74 71 67 70 71 63 71 65 66 64 65 61 65
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 24 36 41 6 35 36 68 101 121 108 122
200 MB DIV 14 3 13 -6 -5 -15 25 2 18 20 52 36 56
LAND (KM) 385 247 110 -16 -109 -36 10 -186 -77 12 -3 -109 -148
LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.1 17.9 18.5 18.6 18.4 17.9
LONG(DEG W) 79.7 81.0 82.2 83.4 84.5 86.6 88.6 90.4 92.0 93.4 95.0 96.8 99.0
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 8 10 11
HEAT CONTENT 52 59 69 20 9999 9999 102 9999 9999 47 54 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 36.9 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 11. 19. 26. 32. 37. 41. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -7. -6. -5.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 27. 37. 43. 48.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 15. 21. 26. 35. 42. 45.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 10/15/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 10/15/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY