* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL992007 10/15/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 36 40 41 42 42 43 39 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 29 31 37 41 45 46 44 31 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 27 28 29 31 33 35 35 34 28 30 29 SHEAR (KTS) 9 14 11 15 16 12 19 27 34 31 37 35 44 SHEAR DIR 320 332 340 300 306 285 283 284 273 266 255 264 290 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.5 27.5 26.1 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 154 155 154 154 152 148 137 123 120 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 143 144 142 140 139 138 140 135 121 115 110 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.2 -51.9 -52.1 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 13 14 11 11 10 11 8 11 7 7 3 700-500 MB RH 55 56 55 56 53 51 47 44 37 45 53 60 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 3 2 14 15 -7 -19 -14 -31 -41 -76 -58 -54 200 MB DIV -10 -9 9 22 13 14 12 15 -2 32 10 54 14 LAND (KM) -122 -73 55 169 282 298 214 96 176 10 -128 225 576 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.9 21.4 22.3 23.4 25.1 27.7 30.3 33.2 35.7 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 88.7 89.9 91.0 92.0 93.0 94.4 95.7 96.5 94.1 89.1 81.6 73.4 66.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 11 9 8 8 11 21 30 36 33 31 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 46 56 55 58 80 46 41 17 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 16. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 16. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. 19. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 10/15/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 10/15/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY