* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* FIFTEEN EP152007 10/15/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 50 52 51 51 55 53 50
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 50 52 51 51 55 53 50
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 35 36 37 38 38 38 38 39 40 41
SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 14 16 16 21 22 22 16 19 18 12 13
SHEAR DIR 92 97 80 83 83 77 90 84 92 92 122 134 147
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 151 151 152 153 153 154 153 152 150 147
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7
700-500 MB RH 58 57 59 58 59 61 62 60 61 56 55 57 57
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 17 18 18 16 15 17 16 13
850 MB ENV VOR 62 53 51 57 63 67 89 80 90 75 96 82 88
200 MB DIV 71 59 63 39 41 68 75 59 61 43 35 19 44
LAND (KM) 622 610 599 580 560 531 499 452 406 402 414 438 476
LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.1 18.2
LONG(DEG W) 108.9 108.9 108.8 108.7 108.5 108.2 108.1 107.9 107.8 108.1 108.6 109.1 109.6
STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 3 2
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 36.8 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 6. 5. 8. 6. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 25. 27. 26. 24. 27. 25. 22.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 22. 21. 21. 25. 23. 20.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 FIFTEEN 10/15/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1
Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 FIFTEEN 10/15/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY