* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982007 10/15/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 25 31 37 42 47 54 60 62 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 23 25 28 27 27 31 31 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 22 25 26 27 27 30 29 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 28 27 19 20 22 14 14 13 15 10 10 15 18 SHEAR DIR 11 9 7 2 11 37 345 340 339 290 252 205 194 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.6 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 163 161 159 160 158 156 156 156 162 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 165 164 162 159 155 155 150 145 145 145 154 166 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 12 10 9 12 8 12 9 14 10 13 9 700-500 MB RH 73 70 69 72 70 68 72 66 65 63 62 62 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 31 42 41 40 37 49 55 81 105 116 125 128 200 MB DIV -2 12 -1 5 -11 12 32 41 21 35 48 54 39 LAND (KM) 330 188 48 -65 -142 -42 -30 -158 -66 11 -23 -142 -130 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.2 18.0 18.4 18.5 18.3 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 80.2 81.5 82.8 84.0 85.1 87.2 89.2 90.9 92.2 93.8 95.3 97.1 99.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 8 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 49 74 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 48 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 25. 32. 37. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 22. 29. 36. 42. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 0. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 34. 40. 42. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 10/15/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 10/15/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY