* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 10/15/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 27 33 36 40 41 41 41 40 35 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 27 33 36 40 32 28 30 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 24 26 29 28 28 SHEAR (KTS) 16 12 16 22 19 17 27 25 26 33 31 41 37 SHEAR DIR 306 309 278 296 314 249 278 268 256 253 266 275 284 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.6 27.3 26.3 26.1 25.8 26.1 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 152 151 150 151 146 131 122 120 116 118 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 139 135 133 133 132 122 115 111 104 103 80 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 -52.3 -52.9 -53.4 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 13 14 11 10 12 9 11 8 8 6 6 3 700-500 MB RH 50 48 50 51 51 51 48 48 52 55 56 55 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -14 -4 -4 3 8 -27 -15 -66 -97 -108 -91 -46 200 MB DIV 2 19 23 15 23 24 0 10 40 55 37 36 46 LAND (KM) 33 148 272 350 430 353 343 21 -134 -114 82 429 379 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.5 24.7 26.4 29.0 31.7 33.9 35.5 37.0 39.3 LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.7 92.6 93.1 93.5 93.9 93.2 91.0 86.1 80.3 75.0 70.5 67.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 8 7 8 12 20 26 25 21 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 46 50 61 57 62 47 48 29 9999 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -2. -4. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 16. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 16. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 15. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 10/15/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 10/15/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY