* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIFTEEN EP152007 10/15/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 37 40 42 42 42 44 44 45 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 37 40 42 42 42 44 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 32 32 33 34 35 37 SHEAR (KTS) 14 17 15 14 19 23 18 17 18 20 12 8 3 SHEAR DIR 96 83 77 74 61 77 77 77 81 90 119 129 252 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 152 152 153 152 150 150 149 146 141 138 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -52.6 -51.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 56 57 57 55 59 61 57 54 52 50 49 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 15 16 16 14 13 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 64 60 64 68 67 75 89 94 80 90 94 103 94 200 MB DIV 60 51 42 36 62 56 62 53 59 41 20 24 -3 LAND (KM) 606 598 590 575 559 552 533 530 517 532 548 516 469 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.3 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 108.9 108.9 108.8 108.7 108.8 109.0 109.2 109.2 109.6 110.2 110.7 111.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 17. 16. 16. 16. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 14. 14. 15. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 FIFTEEN 10/15/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 FIFTEEN 10/15/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY