* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* FIFTEEN EP152007 10/15/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 32 35 37 38 40 43 47 46 47
V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 32 35 37 38 40 43 47 46 47
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 29 29 28 28 28 30 32 34 36
SHEAR (KTS) 22 21 21 26 27 21 21 15 13 10 8 7 14
SHEAR DIR 91 81 80 74 76 76 87 96 87 97 122 141 130
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 152 152 153 153 151 151 149 146 143 139
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 57 56 57 54 56 54 50 52 50 56
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 11
850 MB ENV VOR 55 59 65 64 68 86 77 88 78 101 91 94 102
200 MB DIV 68 59 45 49 33 67 67 74 59 52 36 54 30
LAND (KM) 616 608 600 587 575 544 523 527 532 539 548 546 512
LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.4
LONG(DEG W) 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.8 109.1 109.3 109.6 110.0 110.5 111.1
STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 17. 16. 17.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 17. 16. 17.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 FIFTEEN 10/15/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 FIFTEEN 10/15/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY