* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 10/16/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 33 33 32 32 30 24 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 33 29 27 30 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 21 21 25 29 29 30 SHEAR (KTS) 11 18 18 15 12 23 33 35 35 42 61 69 79 SHEAR DIR 294 305 316 316 281 278 267 270 245 245 227 219 221 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 27.3 26.2 25.5 21.3 14.3 9.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 152 151 149 133 122 115 89 73 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 138 138 136 135 139 130 119 109 82 70 69 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.5 -50.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 10 11 12 9 13 10 10 5 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 52 51 51 51 47 36 42 47 55 51 62 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 11 -5 -15 0 -35 -24 -52 -50 19 89 106 118 200 MB DIV 6 -12 -16 1 9 22 8 5 35 68 70 91 124 LAND (KM) 285 357 288 237 184 81 160 38 -186 -139 10 -93 -3 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.9 22.3 22.8 23.2 24.5 26.6 28.8 31.8 35.4 39.6 43.9 47.9 LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.8 94.5 95.3 96.0 96.9 95.7 91.0 85.0 78.5 74.2 71.3 65.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 9 17 27 31 29 26 26 29 HEAT CONTENT 53 52 57 62 78 49 29 20 9999 9999 0 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 851 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 13. 12. 13. 11. 7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 13. 12. 12. 10. 4. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 10/16/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 10/16/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY