* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIFTEEN EP152007 10/16/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 38 36 35 36 38 36 39 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 38 36 35 36 38 36 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 22 22 SHEAR (KTS) 25 24 25 28 27 27 27 27 25 25 26 29 29 SHEAR DIR 84 85 79 84 88 78 81 72 77 84 90 94 115 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 147 148 147 147 148 148 148 148 147 147 150 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.7 -52.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.9 -52.6 -53.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 58 56 57 57 59 59 65 67 65 65 65 65 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 60 65 64 68 73 87 80 66 57 70 67 76 87 200 MB DIV 65 53 65 55 60 72 75 66 45 59 64 44 72 LAND (KM) 671 671 671 675 680 671 673 666 669 669 666 666 660 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.0 109.0 109.0 109.0 109.0 108.9 108.8 108.7 108.7 108.8 108.8 108.7 STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 8. 7. 8. 6. 8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 6. 5. 6. 8. 6. 9. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 FIFTEEN 10/16/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 FIFTEEN 10/16/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY