* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 10/16/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 29 32 35 36 34 34 34 27 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 29 32 29 28 28 29 30 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 21 25 27 29 30 37 SHEAR (KTS) 18 18 15 12 20 26 30 32 43 66 57 43 56 SHEAR DIR 300 307 310 279 282 278 269 245 239 234 226 202 205 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.0 26.8 25.4 22.0 16.6 10.8 5.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 152 152 151 141 128 115 92 75 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 137 136 135 138 135 125 109 85 71 67 66 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.1 -49.5 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 11 12 10 12 11 11 6 5 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 51 51 49 50 41 35 42 52 52 64 70 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -3 -11 0 -15 -26 -21 -23 -12 34 137 194 218 200 MB DIV -2 0 16 7 12 28 11 45 52 88 112 104 87 LAND (KM) 353 292 245 209 153 110 187 -52 -182 -69 -228 -290 -1 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.4 23.9 25.7 28.0 30.9 34.4 38.6 43.1 47.2 50.1 LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.5 95.2 95.8 96.3 96.1 92.9 87.5 80.8 76.1 73.6 71.2 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 13 23 30 30 26 23 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 53 56 63 74 67 35 26 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. -7. -8. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 15. 14. 15. 15. 11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 14. 14. 14. 7. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 10/16/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 10/16/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY