* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIFTEEN EP152007 10/16/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 36 36 36 37 38 42 41 43 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 36 36 36 37 38 42 41 43 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 26 25 24 23 23 23 23 23 SHEAR (KTS) 27 24 28 27 24 25 25 25 22 21 23 23 25 SHEAR DIR 89 87 83 81 82 79 79 80 93 91 96 104 106 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 149 150 149 149 150 150 149 148 148 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 59 61 61 63 64 66 69 67 62 62 63 63 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 67 66 63 68 79 73 72 50 66 64 74 66 81 200 MB DIV 55 66 63 69 86 74 55 49 39 44 37 37 33 LAND (KM) 690 699 708 686 665 632 674 669 640 645 691 706 698 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.2 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.5 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.1 14.9 14.9 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 108.8 108.6 108.3 108.0 108.1 108.5 108.7 108.8 109.1 109.5 109.7 109.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 13. 13. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 12. 11. 13. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 FIFTEEN 10/16/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 FIFTEEN 10/16/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY