* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 10/16/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 39 41 38 35 33 30 21 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 32 28 30 26 25 26 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 32 31 28 30 27 25 30 32 SHEAR (KTS) 16 13 14 21 24 30 25 43 49 60 61 80 90 SHEAR DIR 300 308 277 285 289 279 266 258 271 275 264 258 256 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 27.9 26.5 26.2 25.3 20.2 14.0 10.4 5.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 151 151 140 126 122 112 84 72 69 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 136 135 137 135 125 116 103 78 70 67 65 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -52.6 -53.1 -53.7 -55.7 -55.1 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 9 11 9 8 5 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 49 51 51 46 40 46 56 60 55 64 70 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -16 6 -14 -36 -28 -40 -86 -73 -43 41 41 23 200 MB DIV 2 15 -2 7 1 9 35 42 44 36 100 99 78 LAND (KM) 326 296 234 183 130 153 -104 -81 197 247 27 43 60 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.4 23.9 24.8 25.7 28.4 31.4 34.3 36.7 39.7 43.6 47.3 50.2 LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.9 95.5 95.7 95.9 93.4 86.9 79.5 73.6 69.1 64.9 59.6 54.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 12 24 33 30 25 24 25 24 21 HEAT CONTENT 57 61 54 27 32 25 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -6. -8. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 14. 11. 9. 7. -1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 16. 13. 10. 8. 5. -4. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 10/16/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 10/16/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY