* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/16/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 37 39 39 39 40 42 43 45 48 48 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 37 39 39 39 40 42 43 45 48 48 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 38 37 37 36 36 36 37 38 39 SHEAR (KTS) 24 23 22 20 22 23 22 22 19 18 19 15 16 SHEAR DIR 96 95 85 82 79 82 76 84 93 82 95 109 111 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 150 150 151 152 151 151 151 150 149 149 146 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 57 56 61 62 64 63 64 61 57 59 60 60 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 14 15 14 13 12 12 11 11 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 73 75 75 88 84 80 72 67 76 73 77 90 97 200 MB DIV 69 69 82 84 87 60 66 50 43 28 19 31 15 LAND (KM) 664 659 653 635 616 605 625 622 621 622 633 629 636 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.3 108.4 108.7 108.9 109.1 109.4 109.7 109.9 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 0 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 41.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 0. -1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 17. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -5. -3. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 13. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/16/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 41.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/16/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY