* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL992007 10/16/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 29 30 28 24 21 22 20 DIS
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 25 26 27 28 29 33 29 DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 22 25 27 30 28 29 29 30
SHEAR (KTS) 21 20 24 28 29 32 49 63 68 75 64 64 70
SHEAR DIR 314 291 290 282 277 272 259 267 272 260 261 253 240
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.8 26.1 24.4 23.1 19.4 11.7 7.1 5.2 2.3
POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 144 137 120 106 97 82 70 67 65 63
ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 134 131 127 114 99 89 77 69 66 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -52.2 -52.9 -54.6 -54.4 -50.9 -48.8
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 8 11 8 8 5 3 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 48 48 45 44 50 50 55 56 57 70 69 60 58
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 6 18 0 -31 -11 -38 -42 -28 -13 34 38 77 111
200 MB DIV 45 22 17 23 26 30 63 55 65 100 96 100 56
LAND (KM) 339 304 290 266 153 -117 -315 -144 -6 -63 27 -224 -4
LAT (DEG N) 24.2 25.0 25.8 27.1 28.3 31.5 34.6 37.4 40.8 45.0 49.2 52.6 54.8
LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.3 94.3 93.6 92.8 88.8 82.8 77.5 73.0 68.5 64.3 61.0 59.2
STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 11 14 19 27 27 25 25 26 23 16 12
HEAT CONTENT 31 22 28 44 25 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 0 9999 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 20. 21. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. 2. -3. -8. -8. -10. -16.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 8. 5. 2. 3. 1. -5.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 8. 4. 1. 2. 0. -9.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 10/16/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 10/16/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY