* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/16/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 32 33 34 35 37 38 41 46 47 48 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 32 33 34 35 37 38 41 46 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 25 26 27 28 29 SHEAR (KTS) 25 26 26 26 28 24 20 18 15 15 15 23 26 SHEAR DIR 92 85 86 83 79 85 81 91 81 79 93 109 119 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 149 151 152 153 153 152 151 152 152 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 65 64 65 62 57 56 57 60 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 13 12 12 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 61 62 71 71 68 79 62 71 62 68 64 89 94 200 MB DIV 86 91 89 87 71 52 68 66 45 34 35 19 46 LAND (KM) 670 668 665 646 626 580 577 587 591 598 583 587 599 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.1 108.0 108.0 108.0 108.0 108.1 108.4 108.7 109.0 109.1 109.4 109.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 16. 17. 18. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/16/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/16/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED