* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 10/17/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 37 34 30 28 29 25 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 26 26 28 29 30 29 30 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 22 29 33 35 34 35 53 59 76 75 53 48 38 SHEAR DIR 285 286 287 286 283 265 267 276 270 262 240 231 269 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.5 26.1 23.4 21.6 17.4 11.1 5.6 3.6 2.5 3.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 144 134 120 101 91 77 69 66 64 59 60 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 132 132 125 114 96 85 73 67 65 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -50.5 -51.5 -52.2 -54.4 -53.2 -48.5 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 7 9 8 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 45 47 53 51 54 55 56 63 70 77 58 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -10 -12 -3 -5 28 -16 -3 -30 45 144 144 10 200 MB DIV 14 13 30 43 62 102 74 54 67 98 84 49 -35 LAND (KM) 298 301 201 57 -134 -523 -347 -233 -230 -39 -331 -230 -311 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.3 27.4 29.2 31.0 35.2 39.3 42.7 46.4 50.3 54.0 55.9 55.2 LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.2 94.1 92.9 91.7 85.9 79.4 74.3 70.1 67.1 65.5 65.5 66.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 16 21 26 33 29 25 23 20 14 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 31 41 18 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 3. 0. -3. -1. -2. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -2. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 13. 9. 5. 3. 5. 2. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 12. 9. 5. 3. 4. 0. -11. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 10/17/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 10/17/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY