* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/17/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 28 27 28 30 30 33 37 42 44 49 V (KT) LAND 30 28 28 28 27 28 30 30 33 37 42 44 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 25 24 22 22 22 22 24 25 27 28 SHEAR (KTS) 21 25 26 24 23 23 21 16 14 11 18 17 22 SHEAR DIR 88 82 87 91 94 90 95 92 78 86 109 114 124 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 155 155 156 155 154 154 154 153 151 151 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 7 6 8 8 8 7 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 63 67 67 68 70 64 56 56 55 61 59 58 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 14 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 59 74 65 60 75 73 77 78 77 74 84 84 108 200 MB DIV 88 98 112 84 75 71 57 34 43 28 37 35 42 LAND (KM) 654 633 611 576 540 516 500 486 492 490 492 488 499 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 107.4 107.2 107.0 106.8 107.2 107.6 107.8 108.0 108.2 108.6 108.8 109.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 14. 16. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 3. 7. 12. 14. 19. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/17/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/17/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY