* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/17/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 35 35 38 39 42 44 48 50 54 52 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 35 35 38 39 42 44 48 50 54 52 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 37 37 36 36 37 39 42 45 46 47 SHEAR (KTS) 24 25 26 26 23 20 12 11 12 13 19 21 19 SHEAR DIR 96 90 84 89 98 86 92 81 98 109 121 126 106 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 155 155 157 157 155 156 155 153 152 150 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 66 68 68 68 65 56 59 59 66 64 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 11 11 11 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 66 65 60 72 76 68 80 73 81 74 88 98 104 200 MB DIV 83 95 73 68 62 61 41 35 32 39 35 49 49 LAND (KM) 633 603 573 552 532 511 455 440 437 428 405 435 494 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.4 17.6 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.2 106.9 106.9 106.8 107.1 107.3 107.5 107.7 107.9 108.2 108.7 109.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 1 2 3 3 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 37.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 16. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 18. 18. 22. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 0. 0. 3. 4. 7. 9. 13. 15. 19. 17. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/17/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 37.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/17/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY