* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/17/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 38 40 44 47 50 54 56 59 59 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 38 40 44 47 50 54 56 59 59 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 38 38 40 42 46 50 54 56 58 SHEAR (KTS) 24 23 21 21 20 13 9 9 11 13 14 18 18 SHEAR DIR 98 91 88 90 90 87 86 84 105 118 135 147 147 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 157 157 158 158 158 157 156 154 152 152 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -51.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 7 9 7 9 7 9 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 64 63 59 61 63 63 64 64 62 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 71 70 83 87 75 72 65 73 64 86 86 104 85 200 MB DIV 90 61 69 71 77 60 34 41 28 13 15 34 37 LAND (KM) 570 543 517 500 482 432 378 330 307 299 315 328 315 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.2 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 106.9 106.7 106.7 106.7 106.7 106.6 106.6 106.8 107.1 107.6 107.9 107.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 37.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 27. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 19. 21. 24. 24. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/17/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 37.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/17/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED