* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* KIKO EP152007 10/17/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 35 36 38 44 47 53 56 59 59 62
V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 35 36 38 44 47 53 56 59 59 62
V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 33 33 33 34 37 42 47 51 53 55
SHEAR (KTS) 26 24 24 22 18 12 6 7 11 18 17 14 12
SHEAR DIR 89 91 97 93 91 91 82 118 137 128 154 148 135
SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 160 160 161 160 160 159 159 156 154 154
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7
700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 67 67 62 60 61 63 62 57 57 64
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 12 13 12 12 12 14 13 15
850 MB ENV VOR 65 78 76 60 59 66 65 72 80 90 88 103 63
200 MB DIV 79 63 71 84 87 54 35 45 42 56 33 50 55
LAND (KM) 486 449 412 393 374 337 291 260 255 231 240 232 196
LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.5 18.9 19.2
LONG(DEG W) 105.6 105.5 105.3 105.3 105.3 105.3 105.5 105.6 105.9 106.3 107.1 107.3 107.1
STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 4 4 2 1
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 24. 29. 32. 33. 34. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -10.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 13. 16. 21. 23. 26. 25. 29.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 9. 12. 18. 21. 24. 24. 27.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/17/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/17/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY