* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/18/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 42 45 52 56 60 60 63 62 64 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 42 45 52 56 60 60 63 62 64 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 34 34 35 37 39 43 48 51 53 54 SHEAR (KTS) 21 20 17 17 14 12 9 12 13 16 17 16 19 SHEAR DIR 81 84 88 93 85 109 100 123 120 148 130 156 136 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 161 162 162 162 160 160 160 158 156 155 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.8 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 8 10 7 9 7 9 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 70 66 68 65 64 69 69 66 65 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 14 14 13 13 14 15 13 15 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 82 84 67 65 78 70 68 80 90 86 107 72 60 200 MB DIV 80 92 108 113 95 54 41 35 54 25 49 43 75 LAND (KM) 429 394 359 336 313 256 229 216 181 157 134 139 148 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.8 19.0 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 104.7 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.7 105.1 105.3 105.4 105.7 106.1 106.3 106.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 24. 29. 32. 34. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. 1. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 21. 25. 25. 28. 26. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 21. 25. 25. 28. 27. 29. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/18/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/18/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY