* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/18/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 42 48 52 61 63 64 65 70 67 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 42 48 52 61 63 64 65 70 67 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 36 39 43 48 52 55 57 59 SHEAR (KTS) 21 20 18 15 12 5 8 10 15 15 14 5 16 SHEAR DIR 74 78 90 91 107 109 145 163 151 158 133 150 169 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 164 163 163 162 161 159 158 158 158 157 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 11 10 10 8 8 7 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 64 62 63 63 68 69 66 68 66 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 13 15 15 13 16 15 15 15 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 90 75 72 91 95 65 62 71 89 80 95 63 47 200 MB DIV 95 102 105 81 60 51 42 26 31 40 59 46 31 LAND (KM) 359 315 272 224 177 136 130 98 84 81 92 104 157 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.2 19.7 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 104.3 104.0 103.7 103.7 103.6 103.9 104.6 105.1 105.5 105.7 105.9 106.4 107.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 2 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. 4. 2. 3. 2. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 18. 27. 29. 30. 30. 35. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 17. 26. 28. 29. 30. 35. 32. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/18/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/18/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY