* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/18/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 43 48 52 59 60 66 61 63 61 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 43 48 52 39 33 39 34 36 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 36 36 39 42 34 31 35 36 37 37 SHEAR (KTS) 19 16 13 7 3 6 11 9 15 14 14 16 22 SHEAR DIR 84 98 102 107 169 143 177 159 178 160 203 203 245 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 163 164 162 161 160 161 160 160 158 158 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.6 -52.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 12 9 8 11 7 9 5 9 4 5 0 700-500 MB RH 66 66 61 58 62 61 61 64 66 64 61 60 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 13 14 13 12 14 13 15 12 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 78 80 94 100 87 66 57 72 74 88 59 26 0 200 MB DIV 108 105 84 72 49 31 14 13 4 30 25 64 -7 LAND (KM) 213 164 115 76 40 7 0 -3 -5 6 106 150 112 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.3 21.1 22.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 103.3 103.1 103.2 103.2 103.7 104.5 105.0 105.2 105.7 106.5 107.3 107.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 3 4 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 3. 2. 5. 0. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 20. 27. 28. 33. 27. 29. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 24. 25. 31. 26. 28. 26. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/18/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/18/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED