* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/18/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 46 52 60 64 68 69 67 69 64 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 46 52 60 64 68 69 67 69 64 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 37 39 42 47 53 58 64 66 65 61 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 11 8 4 7 8 9 9 18 24 22 18 SHEAR DIR 81 84 88 104 100 178 226 182 184 174 179 202 260 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 162 163 162 161 161 160 160 159 157 156 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 10 9 9 8 9 8 7 3 3 700-500 MB RH 63 61 56 59 60 62 66 64 60 60 61 59 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 13 11 13 13 12 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 78 91 91 77 66 62 52 70 61 82 43 33 11 200 MB DIV 87 63 51 37 30 29 6 12 13 23 53 56 4 LAND (KM) 182 151 119 103 87 68 68 47 24 29 119 209 166 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.6 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.4 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.7 103.7 103.6 103.7 103.7 104.2 104.9 105.3 105.4 105.9 106.8 107.6 108.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 3 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. 2. 2. 1. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 23. 27. 33. 34. 31. 34. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 25. 29. 33. 34. 32. 34. 29. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/18/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/18/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY