* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* KIKO EP152007 10/19/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 47 53 59 64 68 62 62 59 56
V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 47 53 59 64 68 62 62 59 56
V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 38 39 42 47 51 56 59 59 57 54
SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 9 4 6 6 7 8 14 12 22 22 22
SHEAR DIR 73 79 97 81 88 183 154 164 123 175 168 211 215
SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.5 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 162 162 162 161 159 158 158 156 153 147 140
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -53.4 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 7 10 10 7 9 6 9 6 4 0 3
700-500 MB RH 62 58 61 59 59 62 62 58 58 53 52 50 40
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 15 11 13 12 13
850 MB ENV VOR 82 80 64 55 53 52 54 50 73 56 48 56 66
200 MB DIV 67 55 43 38 37 -6 13 6 47 47 54 12 50
LAND (KM) 194 170 146 135 130 103 100 116 140 180 240 146 136
LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.4 20.1 21.3 21.7 21.7
LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.1 104.1 104.3 104.5 105.2 105.7 106.1 106.6 107.4 108.4 109.4 110.3
STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 6 6 5 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 24. 29. 32. 33. 33. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. -1. 2. 1. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 7. 10. 15. 22. 27. 32. 26. 27. 23. 20.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 24. 29. 33. 27. 27. 24. 21.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/19/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/19/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED