* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/19/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 44 52 57 61 62 62 62 59 57 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 44 52 57 61 62 62 62 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 38 39 42 45 48 51 54 55 54 52 SHEAR (KTS) 14 7 5 6 5 7 7 6 10 8 15 14 15 SHEAR DIR 74 84 66 111 168 242 197 171 167 174 214 222 227 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.6 27.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 161 160 160 156 153 153 152 149 142 131 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 9 10 8 8 7 7 7 7 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 55 56 57 56 52 50 51 50 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 12 12 13 12 12 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 69 55 49 47 45 38 52 37 56 39 56 62 80 200 MB DIV 43 22 15 22 16 -6 5 26 37 39 56 1 6 LAND (KM) 242 237 235 218 201 183 227 251 242 269 279 215 256 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.8 20.5 21.0 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.1 105.3 105.5 105.6 106.2 107.1 107.6 107.7 108.2 109.2 110.4 111.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 5 4 2 2 4 6 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 419 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 15. 20. 25. 26. 26. 26. 23. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 17. 22. 26. 27. 27. 27. 24. 22. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/19/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/19/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY