* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/19/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 50 53 59 65 68 66 63 60 58 54 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 50 53 59 65 68 66 63 60 58 54 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 45 47 49 53 57 61 64 64 61 57 51 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 9 6 3 6 6 10 12 16 16 14 19 SHEAR DIR 105 94 112 154 220 173 204 170 220 220 229 215 229 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.4 26.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 161 159 157 155 153 150 146 136 127 116 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 7 7 8 6 8 6 7 1 4 1 700-500 MB RH 55 54 54 56 57 57 54 51 44 38 34 32 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 12 13 14 12 12 11 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 49 43 36 31 27 34 30 47 37 59 58 57 58 200 MB DIV 24 20 12 10 -2 -3 5 22 15 9 0 -7 -10 LAND (KM) 230 233 226 213 207 229 236 262 304 223 220 289 364 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.4 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.3 105.5 105.9 106.2 106.9 107.5 108.1 108.8 109.8 111.1 112.3 113.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 26. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 27. 26. 23. 20. 17. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 25. 28. 26. 23. 20. 18. 14. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/19/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/19/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED