* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/19/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 60 65 69 70 69 66 61 55 49 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 60 65 69 70 69 66 61 55 49 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 56 59 64 68 70 71 70 66 62 56 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 4 3 8 13 9 12 13 17 19 25 22 SHEAR DIR 81 95 135 191 149 178 179 206 219 217 218 235 255 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 159 158 156 154 152 150 147 144 136 120 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 8 6 7 7 6 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 53 55 56 56 56 56 53 50 47 43 35 32 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 13 13 13 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 45 43 45 40 37 42 39 61 49 56 47 49 42 200 MB DIV 16 14 8 -5 6 5 21 38 45 37 5 2 -16 LAND (KM) 216 211 206 206 216 223 231 261 269 195 145 158 282 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.2 20.8 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.6 105.9 106.3 106.6 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.8 111.1 112.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 5 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 19. 24. 25. 24. 21. 16. 10. 4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 24. 25. 24. 21. 16. 10. 4. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/19/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/19/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY