* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/20/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 57 62 65 63 61 55 51 47 43 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 53 57 62 65 63 61 55 51 47 43 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 50 52 54 57 60 61 61 58 55 50 44 SHEAR (KTS) 7 3 6 10 10 11 13 16 16 20 23 19 22 SHEAR DIR 105 206 235 229 192 204 204 231 204 208 230 250 257 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.4 26.2 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 158 157 154 153 149 146 143 136 125 108 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 8 5 9 5 6 2 5 2 3 700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 54 55 53 50 44 38 37 32 33 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 45 45 35 29 51 44 52 50 66 57 62 42 48 200 MB DIV 12 0 -9 -8 0 0 14 31 31 10 -20 -23 -13 LAND (KM) 206 198 198 208 221 226 250 269 212 166 177 276 359 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.6 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.9 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.0 106.3 106.7 107.1 107.7 108.1 108.7 109.3 110.1 111.0 112.5 114.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 6 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 17. 16. 15. 10. 5. 0. -3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 20. 18. 16. 10. 6. 2. -2. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/20/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/20/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED