* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/20/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 56 60 61 60 58 54 50 45 41 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 52 56 60 61 60 58 54 50 45 41 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 48 49 52 54 54 54 52 50 46 41 SHEAR (KTS) 2 5 8 10 10 12 17 16 17 14 15 15 18 SHEAR DIR 77 207 210 176 196 189 214 215 202 218 234 249 272 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.7 26.3 25.1 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 156 154 152 150 145 144 140 126 112 106 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 55 54 47 42 39 41 38 32 30 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 13 12 12 13 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 49 43 34 44 44 39 63 43 59 46 39 31 31 200 MB DIV 7 -11 1 -1 12 6 30 48 19 15 0 -19 -17 LAND (KM) 221 221 237 238 239 256 269 230 235 223 279 361 439 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.9 20.7 20.9 20.8 21.0 21.7 21.9 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.5 107.0 107.3 107.6 108.1 108.9 109.4 109.7 110.7 112.4 113.9 115.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 3 7 8 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 20. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 13. 13. 12. 8. 4. -1. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 16. 15. 13. 9. 5. 0. -4. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/20/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/20/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY