* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* KIKO EP152007 10/20/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 69 72 75 73 69 62 53 44 35 29
V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 69 72 75 73 69 62 53 44 35 29
V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 62 65 67 69 69 67 63 56 49 41 33
SHEAR (KTS) 4 5 11 9 12 13 17 16 20 23 21 22 23
SHEAR DIR 240 191 191 192 189 185 228 213 235 240 265 260 274
SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.2 25.9 24.3 23.4 23.1
POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 156 155 151 148 143 134 121 105 95 92
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 6 5 8 4 6 1 3 1 2 1
700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 53 53 44 36 36 36 30 29 28 24
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 13 12 12 12 11 9 7 7
850 MB ENV VOR 36 33 38 39 36 44 46 65 54 38 43 27 17
200 MB DIV -2 5 14 13 7 40 37 0 -8 -35 -5 -25 -22
LAND (KM) 221 225 233 238 245 292 226 155 173 260 309 431 584
LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.4 20.2 21.0 21.5 21.8 22.2 22.7 22.9 23.0
LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.8 107.1 107.5 107.8 108.5 109.2 110.1 111.2 112.6 114.3 116.0 117.8
STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 8 8 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 12. 9. 5. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 14. 11. 5. -3. -12. -21. -27.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 18. 14. 7. -2. -11. -20. -26.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/20/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/20/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED